More than half of Filipinos will be middle class or better off by 2031

New World Data Lab estimates released at an ASEAN summit in Manila show the Philippines will join Southeast Asia’s broader rise in middle-class consumption, with more Filipinos above the global middle-class threshold than below it by 2031. The gains are real, but many households remain vulnerable to a health shock or other setback.

Why it matters: - The Philippines is approaching a demographic and economic shift that will reshape consumer spending, financial services and household resilience. - New World Data Lab estimates show more Filipinos will be in the global middle class or above than below it by 2031. - Most of the new middle class remains close to the threshold, which makes the gains fragile. - Health costs remain a major risk, with illness the most common reason Filipino adults borrow.

What happened: - World Data Lab presented new estimates today at the ASEAN Inclusive Growth Summit in Manila. - The summit was hosted by the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth and the ASEAN Business Advisory Council Philippines. - World Data Lab estimates that 43% of Filipinos are in the global middle class or above today. - That share is projected to reach 58% by 2036. - Southeast Asia as a whole crossed the halfway mark in 2025. - The Philippines is now catching up with the regional trend.

The details: - World Data Lab defines the middle class as people spending $13 to $130 a day per person, in 2021 purchasing power parity dollars. - The consumer class includes everyone spending more than $13 a day, including the middle class and the rich. - Middle-class and consumer-class figures cover the full population, not only adults. - Population estimates use Wittgenstein Centre projections under scenario SSP2. - Financial inclusion figures refer to adults age 15 and over. - Those financial inclusion estimates are based on World Data Lab modeling using World Bank Global Findex data. - Wolfgang Fengler, World Data Lab CEO, said young people are driving the shift. - Fengler said Gen Z and Millennials already make up half of the consumer class across Southeast Asia. - World Data Lab also said 72% of Filipinos are online. - Only 19% pay by card or phone in a store.

Between the lines: - The headline growth story is not the same as broad financial security. - Many households are entering the middle class with limited buffers, so a single medical emergency can push them back down. - The data suggest the next stage of growth depends less on access alone and more on everyday habits such as digital payments, savings and insurance-like protection against shocks.

What's next: - The Philippines’ consumer market should keep expanding as more households move above the middle-class threshold. - Progress will likely depend on whether digital financial tools become more common and easier to use. - World Data Lab argues that protecting newly gained spending power will matter as much as creating it. - More information about the summit is available at the event page.